Win Odds Pot Odds what do they mean?

[micro485]

What do comparison of "Win Odds" and "Pot Odds" in Tournament Indicator show you? NOT how to calculate them. I know whether to call or not depends on the people in the pot and your read on them but assume for a minute you opponents are neutral what comparison of "win odds" and "pot odds" will justify or not justify a call.

[JSquared]

MOD alert.

MAybe it would be good idea to have a sticky in this thread that explains Win odd and pot odds? Just seems everytime I scan this part of the forum, someone is always asking what the win odds vs pot odds significance is?

[JP]

Post flop they are much more accurate as pre flop they are based on less information. However, they are NOT based on all villains having 100% range. Preflop they are used only as an INDICATOR not a specific hard number statistic.

Both pre AND post flop and the situation is marginal based on everything else and my read is neutral, then win odds can be my determining factor to make the play or fold. I use is as PART of my decision process, not as the final decision that those are my factual win odds. But post flop, they are extremely good indicators. When both bars are high, (win odds and pot odds) then it is a strong indicator you should play anything you are holding in that situation because the math is right for any risk involved. (this assumes you have the ability to fold post flop if the situation changes).

[JP]

What do comparison of "Win Odds" and "Pot Odds" in Tournament Indicator show you? NOT how to calculate them. I know whether to call or not depends on the people in the pot and your read on them but assume for a minute you opponents are neutral what comparison of "win odds" and "pot odds" will justify or not justify a call.

As you have noted, Pot odds are the math of the pot and if it's worth it to pursue your hand based on statisics as to what you may likely draw. The win odds are not so clear. The other statistics as you pointed out are used to profile and put your opponent on a range. But there are many times you don't have them on a range yet and while the cards may be pretty you are not sure if you want to play them. The pot odds given you are not a no-brainer 5 to 1 so in any given situation it could be you are sitting there neutral in a hand as to what to do.

There are a couple ways Win Odds can be used. First and foremost as already pointed out in the post above, they are not a fixed statistic that if you play the hand you would win that often with it. They are merely INDICATORS of how your hand plays on average. Preflop, if you have good win odds but bad pot odds, you fold. If you have good pot odds and bad win odds, generally you fold, sometimes you make the play anyway but when neutral in other respects AND win odds bad, just fold all the time.

Say I want to make a steal, if my win odds are good I can make the attempt (because pot odds are irrelevent to you to steal or fold other than there is enough for you to want to steal). So if it's folded to you in cutoff through sb and win odds are decent, go ahead for the steal attempt.

Post flop the win odds are much more accurate and a better indicator to stay in the hand. The better the win odds and the better the pot odds then long term if you make that play repeatedly every time you will come out ahead more likely it is you will come out ahead. Also, when a situation is marginal and you are not sure, your read and the math for the pot and making your hand on the draw is all neutral, then look to the win odds and if good, go for it but if not, back off.

They are part of an entire unit and you should learn what all the features do and how they can be used in unison with each other to profile and make reads. Win odds should never be looked at first in a scenario and decide yes or no based on that. They should be looked at as part of the decision while looking at everything else. I hope this answers your question

[micro485]

Actually JP you almost answered what I was trying to find out. As you said, "The better the win odds and the better the pot odds then long term if you make that play repeatedly every time you will come out ahead more likely it is you will come out ahead." Assuming neutral opposition (Yes I know that will not really happen but I am trying to get to a base point to begin my own analysis of the situation) what is BETTER?

For example I have with a flush draw after the flop there is a 32% of completing the flush by the river what would the pot odds need to be to justify a call on the turn assuming neutral opposition and the board has not paired.

[JP]

In scenario like that I look at 3 to 1 pot odds needed to make the call just for neutral break even, there is no edge in that. However, if the win odds bar is up there with the pot odds or better, then I have something else going for me like a pair, overcards or gutshot/open ender draws with the flush too. So, enhanced outs, therefore I am hoping for the flush but with everything equal and the win odds indicating good potential I would make the call.

Sometimes I don't see something the software does. Like THEY have str8 potential or board pairs but missed it like 4 on left in flop and river is a 4 after an Ace on turn and I don't see everything correctly thinking my paired ace is good. But the bet is high, pot odds even or really good but no cards to come and my win odds are way low, I'm like ok, what the heck am I missing. IF I spend the time to really look again, I can save a lot of chips by folding then.

But, as in your specific scenario, if it is 1 in 3 you hit, break even is 3 to 1 probably make the call, but anything better I certainly call. The better the pot odds over the draw odds the better your edge to be involved.

[JP]

If you don't use, don't believe it or find no value in it for your playing style, then that is correct for you. But for others it has its place in the software.

There is nothing "sentient" about it (which would violate some sites terms) and no different than using an algorithm to come up with a fake random, er uh, psuedo-random. Math is math and there are assumptions in tons of calculations. ICM for example, requires assumptions. ICM works and is good IF x does y. Which is an assumption that x will do y. But sometimes x does z instead. The math don't change and it's still correct play long term.

People are many times confused by the difference between pot odds and implied odds. Implied odds requires MASSIVE assumptions about your opponent as to being worthwhile. Just because people are so often confused by implied odds compared to pot odds, implied odds still have their place.

The part that would make it against some sites rules is if it made a specific play recommendation based on its calculations (play/fold/check/raise/etc...) as some software use similar calculations based on opponent stats, your hole cards, the board, stacks, etc... Basically it is a bot telling you what it would do. That is no where NEAR what win odds does. It is merely an INDICATOR and part of an entire package and clearly not meant even by the programmers as the main decision maker.

[JP]

Much like pot odds in TI are thought to be useless by some. Not that they are useless for playing poker, but to an expereinced player that knows pot odds with a glance at the table, they are not using the pot odds feature in TI very often. So to them it might not be useless. But that doesn't mean it is useless as part of the application. There are features I never use and pot odds I rarely have need of in TI. But it is there and valid and useful now and then when trying to make a read and decision in some situations. Remember, TI is made for all levels of players. Just because you or I may not need to use the win odds or the sklansky groupings or the pot odds feature does not mean they are useless. Some players feel that their experience in many cases is much better than what a calc can tell them and I agree with that too.

I think Implied odds would be a good addition in the middle there with win odds and pot odds. Simply another indicator. The flaw comes from players not experienced with it and maybe no on a level 3 thinking yet. So it is implemented wrong or not understood and not implemented. Especially with regard to Implied odds, we have only recently discussed in the past couple months that our perceptions and application of implied odds have been wrong in the past. Many extemely experienced players and pros that wrote about implied odds have all been wrong for the most part on +EV application of the concept until recently when you add in opponent likelyhood or tendencies. The math was altered slightly to be a better +EV application for online poker.

There are many "odds" that can confuse a person, until that person becomes experienced. The odds of making a draw from flop or turn for example. There are also the statisitical win odds of made hands. There are others and it all boils down to probabilities and how we read them and incorporate them into our game.

Nothing wrong with difference of opinions and healthy debates. I try to include IMO or similar when it's conjecture or my own belief. Some of our posts don't always include those disclaimers and can be misinterpreted as factual when it is not.

I further agree whole-heartedly, that with experience a player is much better at determining win odds than TI does. Profiling, hands and board put with your read is the determining factor in that regard imo.

[Marty Smith]

MOD alert.

MAybe it would be good idea to have a sticky in this thread that explains Win odd and pot odds? Just seems everytime I scan this part of the forum, someone is always asking what the win odds vs pot odds significance is?

Best idea in this thread.


(Thread edited by Marty.)

[Marty Smith]

JP thanks for trying to put a solid explanation on this feature. The way T&F describes it, is that TI invented it, but it's actually a standard feature on several competing products, much before TI or HI were around. There is always room for improvement, but the benefits of this feature have been discussed here before, where I have explained how I use it.

AS JP explains there is always abstract information in such poker calculator tools, your experience will eventually lead you to understanding which is valuable for you, and how those indicators ASSIST you in making decisions.

[dice channel]

Not sure this is the correct thread, but yeah. Anyway, I read some threads (including this one) on how to interpret pot odds vs. win odds, but it's still not clear to me. Actually I've asked this on another forum, but since they hadn't replied me yet, it might be a better idea to ask here.

Bear in mind I'm a total greenhorn... I downloaded the Holdem indicator. Out of the more relevant things, it shows pot odds (red block thingy), win odds (green) and your EV. Now, purely statistically speaking (without the advanced level player profiling and all), what would be the right course of action depending on what these show me? I understand that if my red block (pot odds) is higher than the green one (win odds), that is mathematically a good call. Am I getting this right? Also, when should I raise? Is this what the EV value tells me?

I HAVE read a bit of theory on what EV means, but it's still not clear to me. Can you give me specific situations and maybe a few examples when there is optimal to raise (is this what the EV tells you)? But please do tell me I got the pot odds vs win odds right at least.

Thanks!

[JP]

Register for the free video series and much of what you asked plus breakdowns and use of a LOT of TI features are in them. It's the only way to go for a start.

[dice channel]

Ok, so I registered for free videos. The thing is, I have only received 1 so far. And now it has been 2 days since I got it.

Is there a site where all of them are gathered at the same place? Perhaps the mailing list is bugged, I don't know. But if it's planning to send me like 1 video a week, than damn... that would take me 14 weeks to watch them all.

Can someone PLZ at least pm me the links or something? I don't wanna wait that long.

[GThibbb]

Ok, so I registered for free videos. The thing is, I have only received 1 so far. And now it has been 2 days since I got it.

Is there a site where all of them are gathered at the same place? Perhaps the mailing list is bugged, I don't know. But if it's planning to send me like 1 video a week, than damn... that would take me 14 weeks to watch them all.

Can someone PLZ at least pm me the links or something? I don't wanna wait that long.

I would also like to know if this is possible. I think the TI is a great tool, has improved my cashing rate and I would like to be able to see all of the videos in one spot rather than sent out over the course of weeks.

Keep up the good work!

[JP]

Information overload would destroy the value of the series. It is broken down and spread out in a logical sequence to allow the viewer to take it in, apply it, practice it, review it again, work on it. Then the next one comes along and they do the same thing with it adding to what they already developed. Not everyone acquires and retains knowledge at the same rate. This program is designed to be optimal for the most people possible. Usually in the 2nd or 3rd video there is information about another site and video series. Signing up for that one too now brings in additional information in between the other vids. Add in time spent playing/learning/practicing and studying or working in the forum to gain more knowledge, well, that's a lot of info in a very short period in actuality.